The “18-Year Real Estate Cycle” Ends in 2026 (What Now?)

BiggerPockets Blog
Published: January 29, 2026
Pricing & Profitability

Summary

This article discusses the 18-year real estate cycle theory, which suggests a housing market crash in 2026. Hosts should be aware of this theory and its potential impact on property values, particularly if considering future investments or sales.

Key Insights

  • The theory suggests a pattern: cheap land prices, recovery and development, a mid-cycle dip, followed by a boom, and then a crash.
  • The 18-year housing cycle theory predicts a crash every 18 years due to land speculation and unsustainable prices, with a crash expected in 2026.

Action Items

  • Monitor market trends and economic indicators to stay informed about potential shifts in property values and make informed decisions about your STR business.
    Effort: low
    Impact: medium

Tools & Resources

  • BiggerPockets Blog: The article mentions the BiggerPockets Blog.(biggerpockets.com)

Common Mistakes

  • Relying solely on this theory without considering other economic factors could lead to poor investment decisions.

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